Along with the verdict of the Supreme Court, the House of Representatives (HoR) has been reinstated for the remaining term and KP Sharma Oli's inning as a Prime Minister has been ended this time. As the Court has issued mandamus and ordered to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuwa as the next Prime Minister of Nepal as per the provision of Article 76(5) of the Constitution of Nepal, the office of the President has informed that it has prepared for Deuwa's oath taking ceremony today at 6:00 pm. The bitter episode, which had begun with the strong majority government, formed nearly 40 months ago and led by parliamentary leader of the then CPN (CPN), KP Sharma Oli, has been ended with a forgettable span of time in history.
Congress President Deuba is set to succeed Oli as Prime Minister of Nepal on Tuesday. But the alliance of NC, CPN (Maoist Center), Baburam Bhattarai-UpendraYadav faction of Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), and Madhav Nepal-led faction of the UML does not seem to go so long together.
A meeting of the alliance on Monday had discussed on their future course of action including the formation of a new cabinet. But, the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction of the ruling CPN-UML has signaled to separate itself out from the alliance then formed to fight against caretaker PM Oli. After Monday's verdict, Nepal faction announced to unify with the party ending earlier formed alliance.
In this political situation, Deuwa is sure to become the new prime minister, however, he is unlikely to complete the remaining term of the parliament as there is little probability of him to be successful to get the majority vote of confidence from the House. The two factions in the UML (one led by Oli and other by Nepal) on Sunday evening have reached a 10-point agreement for the party's reunion. If they reach a consensus, Nepal faction will leave the alliance and will perhaps start a new game hand-in-hand with Oli against the same alliance. The long-established trend of doing vicious activities in Nepalese politics is likely to remain the same.
After the dissolution of the HoR the second time, a total of 146 members had reached out to Supreme Court with a writ petition demanding the restoration of the House and appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba, as next Prime Minister on 24 May.
While claiming Prime Ministership as per 76(5) back in May , Deuba had presented signatures of 149 lawmakers to prove that he had majority to lead a new government. But only 23 MPs of Madhav Kumar Nepal-led faction of the UML had done signatures on the petition.
Although Nepalese politics in the current system will do nothing new for the nation, the Supreme Court's verdict has become historical in the sense that it has shed light on the provision of the 76(5), carefully interpreting the words and intention of the constitutional provision. The court not only clarified the difference between 76(2) and 76(5), it also illustrated the constitutional freedom of MPs when the procedure of making a new prime minister enters into the provision of 76 (5). With the verdict, the apex court has once again presented itself of being capable of doing justice independently and unbiasedly, regardless of any outer pressure, interference attempts or unfriendly circumstances.
Earlier, Oli had failed to secure vote of confidence on 20 May and president Vidhya Devi Bhandari on 13 May had appointed Oli the prime minister under Article 76 (3) of the constitution as the parliamentary leader of the party with the highest number of members in the House.
Then Oli had to take the vote of confidence from the HoR in 30 days. But he had refused to take the votes and cleared the way for entering into the procedure of 76(5). Following to that, president Bhandari had called MPs to go to her with reliable claim to be appointed as the new prime minister as per the provision of 76(5). Instead of taking trust of the HoR or resigning from the post as a failure prime minister, MP Oli himself and MP Deuwa had gone to claim for the post. But, Bhandari had refused to allow any of them to form a new government as per Article 76 (5) and had dissolved the House as recommended by Oli-led cabinet.
Now, the court has given verdict that the parliamentarians would not be abided by the party 'whip'. It means they can decide over the candidate on their own when it comes to choosing a Prime Minister when Article 76 (5) is activated. However, the Deuwa's alliance lost its strength immediately after the Nepal faction of the UML came to the conclusion of leaving the alliance. The two factions of the UML have been playing games of deceit and betrayal for a long time, and now, the Nepal faction has made the Deuwa's alliance another victim.
Whether Deuwa garners the vote of confidence or not, he has come the fifth time as the Prime Minister of Nepal either to lead till the end of the term or to carry out the mid-term election after being failed to receive the majority votes from the HoR. If he recommends to dissolve the House after failing to take the vote of confidence, no legal or constitutional challenge is possible as there remains no other way when the prime minister, appointed as 76(5), fails to prove majority in the House.
Whatever has happened to date and will happen in the near future will seem different in form, but will remain exactly the same in gist. The factionalism in the form of the multiparty democracy has become completely unsuccessful in Nepal. Waiting for radical changes from within this irritating political system is just a waste of time in reality. Intellectuals and political thinkers now need to appear in the front political line with strong long-term vision of building this nation, removing almost all the deeply rooted negative trends in the Nepali politics.