Nepalese politics provides a lot of extraorninary and awesome scenario for domestic and international observers as well. KP Sharma Oli, the prime minister of Nepal, has recently showed interest in taking votes of confidence from the House of Representatives. For the purpose, as it is said, president Vidhya Devi Bhandari has called a Special Session of the House  scheduled to sit on 27 Baisakh. In fact, the time was to call a regular Budget Session. During the regular Session also, the prime minister could take time for proving confidence.

And even more amazingly, the government has issued 7 ordinances including the most controversial one that of the Constitutional Council. At the time when the House has already been scheduled to start, issuing ordinances does noway justify the honesty of the government: The act of issuing ordinances  indicates towards the government's intention of avoiding or skipping the parliament. Issuing ordinances is a right of the government, however, in a parliamentary democratic system, the government is not expected to rule by ordinances as in a totalitarian political system. The latest political dramas, from those acted out in Gandaki and Lumbini provinces to the Special Session called for taking votes of confidence, have demostrated how awful political situation is in existence in Nepal.

Now, KP Oli has engaged all the opposition parties to play game with him. The oppositions are skeptical whether the real intention of the prime minister is some other than just honestly presenting himself with wide hands seeking for their confidence in him. They are busy in preparing an effective plan to prevent Oli from gaining confidence from the House. Viewing such a tumultuous situation, people automatically show desire to know what next is going to happen, or what Mr. Oli's hidden interest is in setting the stage in the name of taking confidence from the House.

In the background, there are interesting stories at least exposed from the date of the prime minister's act of dissolving the House. With the step, an unsatisfied faction of the same party and the oppositions, including Nepali Congress, had given shapes to protests and mass gatherings saying Mr. Oli's move was unconstitutional. Later, the supreme court gave verdict in favour of them restablishing the House. Soon after that came another game-changing verdict of the supreme court, and the verdict made the then ruling Nepal Communist Party (CPN) collapse to its roots. CPN was formed earlier by unifying two parties, CPN (UML) and CPN (Maoist Center). With the court's decision, they again fell to the bottom and reached three years back regaining the old identity as CPN (UML) and CPN (Maoist Center). Following the event, the political drama, specially in the UML, has become a good source of entertainment to the audience in the corona-hit, too unpleasant socio-economic situation. And most recently, the Special Session of the House is called on according to Article 93(1) for the purpose of taking votes of confidence  as mentioned in Article 100(1) of the Constitution of Nepal, 2072.

Although the total number of members in the House of Representatives is 275,  only 271 are there in the House in existence at present. Among them, 120 of UML, 61 of Congress, 48 (excluding the speaker) of Maoist Center and 32 of the Samajwadi have got voting rights. In such a situation, prime minister needs 136 votes to get confidence. If the Mahantha Thakur-Rajendra Mahato faction of the Samajwadi party keeps on supporting Mr. Oli, and provided that the Madhav Kumar Nepal-Jhalanath Khanal faction of the UML does not cross the floor, prime minister Oli will win the confidence. But if any MP/s of the Nepal-Khanal faction crosses the floor or become absent on the day, prime minister is sure to lose the confidence.

Similarly, if the Thakur-Mahato faction can not manage the votes of the party's at least 16 MP's, prime minister Oli can not gain confidence. Congress has already decided to go against Mr. Oli's proposal, whereas, Maoist center on Wednesday withdrew the party's support previously given to the Oli government. In this condition, prime minister Oli has hardy any option to turn on those two parties for their support to him. However, Mr. Oli met president Sher Bahadur Deuwa on Wednesday and urged him to support the government by giving him the votes of confidence. But, sources say, the Congress leadership straightforwardly denied to favour him.

It is the reason that people are suspicious about Mr. Oli. Mr. Oli clearly knows that the Nepal-Khanal faction does not blindly vote for him forgetting every charges and penalties imposed on them by him. Mr. Oli also knows  if he loses confidence once from the House, his departure from the post is inevitable. Despite the fact that his act was full of risks, he moved on to the path of taking confidence. Why? What happens if he does not get the votes of confidence? This is the pivotal question to discuss here in this article.

The Oli-led present government was formed as per Article 76(1) of the constitution of Nepal, 2072. It was in the status of a majority government until the Maoist Center withdrew its support on Wednesday, today morning. If everything goes on as it is and the House runs normally on 27 Baisakh, the voting will decide his fate. His success in obtaing the vote of confidence will protect his post for the remaining period of this term. But, if he loses confidence, the post of the prime minister will immediately be vacant. Then the situation enters into the process of Article 76(2) of the constitution.

In accordance with the provision of that Article, the president will have to appoint the next prime minister to the leader of a parliamentary party likly to prove majority forming a coalition among two or more parties representing in the parliament. In such a condition, the oppositions including Congress and Maoist Center make 61+48=109 only. Adding 18 members of the Baburam Bhattarai-Upendra Yadav faction of the Samajawadi Party, too, the tolal number of MPs become only 127, whereas, it needs 136 for the majority. So, it seems impossible for the opposition to prove majority even if one of them is appointed as the prime minister. And, while assuming that the process goes to 76(2), too, the president is not compelled not to appoint the parliamentary leader of the CPN(UML) again as the prime minister. If done so, newly appointed prime minister KP Sharma Oli will have to take the vote of confidence within a month after his appointment as per Article 76(4).

If Mr. Oli again loses the vote of confidence, the process will enter into the provision mentioned in Article 76(3). According to the provision, the president will appoint the prime minister to the parliamentary leader of the party which has got the highest number of members in the parliament. If it happens, KP Oli will again be appointed because CPN (UML) is the largest party in the present parliament and KP Sharma Oli is the party's parliamentary leader.

However, it is possible that Mr. Oli may again fail to obtain confidence as per the provision of Article 76(4). If so, the process proceeds to the provision of Article 76(5). In the Article, it is mentioned that the president may appoint the prime minister to a member of the parliament provided the MP presents reliable basis for proving their majority. The provision of this Article does not count so much as when there could happen nothing going through 76(2), it seems unlikely to form coalition for a single member of parliament as per 76(5). But, Mr. Oli himself may claim again insisting that he can prove majority in the 4th attempt. If the president is satisfied with his basis of claims, he will be appointed for the fourth time in the post. Again, he will have to take the vote of confidence as per Article 76(4). If he fails again to obtain confidence, then he will be able to disolve the House of Representatives and fix a date for mid-term election not exceeding six months from the date of dissolution.

But it is not worthy to think that Mr. Oli will go to that extent. Mr. Oli seems to be cleverer than others have thought him to be. Therefore, we can assume that he will do something other than what all the others have expected. If he realizes that he will not gain the confidence from the House in the first attempt because of his own party's dissatisfied faction, he may oust them all from the parliament by accusing them of doing anti-party activities. Following the constitutional provision of Article 89, Maoist Center has already seized the posts of its several MPs. Similarly, chairperson Oli may seize the posts of Nepal-Khanal faction's MPs.

If Mr. Oli has really targeted to face the parliamentary trial first, he may let everything  go on normally until the voting occurs in the parliament. Then, when any MP/s of the UML votes against him, or any of them become absent, or they anyway make him fail to obtain the vote of confidence, he may immediately punish them for violating the party's rules and regulations. When he expels the violater MPs, their posts in the parliament will be vacant.

Let's assume that Mr. Oli ousts 27 of its MPs. Then the total number reduces from 271 to 244. Now, for the majority in the House, 123 votes are needed. It is possible for him to get 123 votes only in the condition that all the MPs of the Janata Samajwadi Party support him. But it seems to be unlikely to predict that Bhattarai-Yadav faction raises hands for Oli. So, Mr. Oli steps ahead to punish so many MPs of his party, we can guess, only in the condition of making the new prime minister to a leader of the Samajwadi party. In the situation mentioned, KP Oli will first of all face the parliamentary trial for confidence. Then, if he loses confidence due to his own party's MPs, he will punish them to make their posts vacant. Following to that, Mr. Oli will offer the Samajwadi Party for the post of the new prime minister. After all, the new government, headed by a Samajwadi Party leader, perhaps Baburam Bhattarai, will be formed.

From this, Oli will strengthen himself to rule  for the remaining term from behind the curtain. Mr. Oli's main strenth lies on the Samajwadi Party, which perhaps do not reject Mr. Oli's proposal of making new prime minister from the party. So, until the Samajwadi party is with him, prime minister Oli will either remain in the chair or be ruling as a de facto prime minister. Congress, Maoist Center and Nepal-Khanal faction's collective strength may also fall sort of making KP Oli powerless, at least, before the election.